Metals generally fell, while polysilicon surged over 7% to hit a record high, lithium carbonate rose over 2%, and ferrous metals series all rose [SMM Daily Review]

SMM July 17 news:

Metal market:

At the daytime close, base metals in the domestic market mostly declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE zinc rising together, up 0.52% and 0.07% respectively. SHFE nickel fell 0.6%, SHFE tin dropped 0.59%, while other metals saw relatively small % changes. Alumina main contract lost 1.59%, while cast aluminum main contract gained 0.18%.

Additionally, lithium carbonate main contract rose 2.47%, silicon metal main contract increased 0.75%, and polysilicon main contract surged 7.49%, marking 12 consecutive gains and hitting a record high of 45,715 yuan/mt intraday since its listing. European container freight index fell 4.28% to 1,581.3.

Ferrous metals series collectively advanced, with iron ore and HRC both rising over 1% (iron ore up 1.81%, HRC up 1.23%). For coking coal and coke, coking coal gained 1.55% and coke rose 1%.

In the overseas market, as of 15:03, only LME tin rose among base metals, up 0.45%, while others declined, led by LME zinc's 0.63% drop, with other metals falling within 0.5%.

For precious metals, as of 15:03, COMEX gold fell 0.54% and COMEX silver dipped 0.04%. Domestically, SHFE gold edged down 0.03% while SHFE silver inched up 0.07%.

Market data as of 15:03 today

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Macro front

Domestic updates:

[PBOC injects net 360.5 billion yuan via open market operations today]The central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations. With 90 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan.

[Beijing's H1 GDP grows 5.5% YoY]Beijing held a press conference on its H1 economic performance. The city's GDP reached 2.50292 trillion yuan in H1, up 5.5% YoY at constant prices. The Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics noted stable and improving economic operations. Additional data showed industrial added value above designated size rose 7.0% YoY (up 0.2 percentage points from Q1), while tertiary industry added value grew 5.6% YoY (also up 0.2 percentage points from Q1). Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased 14.1% YoY, total market consumption rose 0.9% YoY, total retail sales reached 673.42 billion yuan (down 3.8% YoY), and service consumption grew 4.7% YoY.

►On July 17, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was set at 7.1461 yuan per US dollar.

US dollar:

As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose by 0.49% to 98.77. The US PPI for June was lower than expected, and Fed officials stated that the impact of tariffs on the economy had just begun, advocating caution regarding interest rate cuts. The "fire Powell" controversy continued to escalate, with Trump denying any immediate plans to dismiss the Fed Chairman. The year-on-year rate of the US PPI for June was recorded at 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, with market expectations at 2.5%. The month-on-month rate of the US PPI for June was recorded at 0%, the lowest since January, with market expectations at 0.2%. The "Beige Book" released by the Federal Reserve on the 16th showed that while US economic activity increased slightly, it generally faced rising prices. According to CCTV reports, on July 16 local time, US President Trump, when discussing Fed Chairman Powell, stated that there were currently no plans to take any action, nor had any dismissal letters been drafted. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Macro:

Today, data such as the UK's May unemployment rate - according to ILO standards, the UK's May three-month average wage annual rate including bonuses, the eurozone's June harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted final value, the eurozone's June core harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted final value, the US's June import price index monthly rate, the US's initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12, the US's continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5, the US's July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US's June retail sales monthly rate, the US's June core retail sales monthly rate, the US's June retail sales annual rate, and the US's June retail sales control group monthly rate associated with GDP - seasonally adjusted, will be released.

In addition, attention should be paid to the Fed's release of the Beige Book on economic conditions; a speech by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams on the US economy and monetary policy; the Fed's release of the Beige Book on economic conditions; a speech by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams on the US economy and monetary policy; South Africa hosting the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting until July 18; and South Africa hosting the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting until July 18.

Crude oil:

As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US oil up by 0.08% and Brent oil up by 0.06%. Market sentiment improved due to stronger-than-expected economic data from major global oil-consuming countries and signs of easing trade tensions.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell last week due to increased exports, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, raising some concerns about fuel demand. The report showed that as of the week ending July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, while analysts had previously estimated a decrease of 552,000 barrels. During the same week, US gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, against market expectations of a 1 million-barrel decline. Distillate inventories, including heating oil and gasoline, rose by 4.2 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, compared with market forecasts of a 200,000-barrel increase.

The US Fed's Beige Book released on Wednesday indicated that economic activity had increased in recent weeks, though the outlook remained "neutral to slightly pessimistic," with businesses reporting that higher import tariffs exerted upward pressure on prices. John Paisie, President of Stratas Advisors, noted that easing trade tensions provided support for oil prices. Analysts stated that better-than-expected economic data from major economies and a larger-than-anticipated decline in US commercial crude inventories last week also bolstered oil prices. ANZ analysts added, however, that the larger-than-expected increases in gasoline and diesel inventories capped market gains, as they raised concerns about weak demand during the US summer travel peak. (Comprehensive report by Wen Hua)

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